Money moves horse9/2/2023 ![]() Strength of the market: How strong is the support or drift relating to a horse? The shorter the odds, then the higher the gamble. You should always bear the following factors in mind when assessing whether to back a mover or leave it alone: Careful betting decisions can often be the difference between winning and losing. There is so much to consider before wading into the market and getting behind a horse that is on the move. What factors should I consider with racing market movers What odds checkers do is use a simple colour scheme with horses that are being backed shaded in one colour, and those on the drift in another. There are also odds comparison services where you can check the prices offered by different bookmakers. If updating from the morning of the race, you can use these to spot early market movers in horse racing. These can highlight both steamers and drifters. Some horse racing websites have dedicated pages where they list the day’s major market movers. ![]() Where can I check horse racing market movers For many bettors, there is no value in backing horses at such prices. Once price movement reaches even money (2.00), i.e., an implied probability of 50%, and continues to shorten, a horse is said to be odds-on. Those with higher prices than they had previously are drifting. Horses with smaller fractions or decimal prices next to them than before in the betting have been backed. This also continues to happen from when the final declarations for a race are announced, and the first show betting markets appear. Throughout the season, as horses win and lose pivotal trials en route to this big race, their prices will change. If the horse race of interest to you is one of the main events in the sport, then there will be ante-post odds available. How does price movement work in horse racing Keeping faith with a horse that has drifted could result in a better return on your bet if it wins. Sometimes, it will pay to ignore what everyone else is doing and draw your own conclusions. Only bet on a steamer when you can see why it has been supported so heavily. Following in on the gamble means you have missed a better price, but could still make some profit if the horse wins. Should I follow or bet against a horse market mover Steamers are seen as having an increased implied probability and thus a higher chance of winning, but sometimes a market move of this nature can turn out to be false. It is only an indication of strong market confidence. Just because a gamble develops on a steamer, however, is no guarantee that such a horse will win the race. A starting price of 2/1 (3.00) means bookies have cut his odds by two-thirds because of all that betting interest. For instance, Kauto Star has the first show of 6/1 (7.00) but is backed off the boards by bettors who support him strongly. Steamers, meanwhile, are the biggest markets movers in a positive direction. You get a higher return if they win, but the implied probability of that happening is smaller. Horses can defy a drift in the market and still win, so don’t automatically rule out betting on those whose odds get bigger. Such a big negative market mover may happen because of the way a horse behaved in the paddock or other preliminaries. ![]() By the time of the off, the odds have trebled in price to 9/1 (10.00). Say, for example, Denman starts as a 3/1 (4.00) to win a race. The top drifter in a race is the horse that has had its odds of winning increased the most. Drifters and steamers: the most significant market movers ![]()
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